Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
